There are now ten official members of the BRICS alliance. The five founding nations are Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Thus, the acronym BRICS. Six additional countries are now official members: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, United Arab Emirates, and Indonesia. Ten more countries are in the “partner state” category: Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam. Algeria and Türkiye were invited to become partner states but have not confirmed their status. Its eleven official members represent 39% of global GDP and 49% of the world’s population.
The 2025 BRICS Summit was hosted by Brazil in Rio de Janeiro on July 6-7. The host country sets the agenda for discussion at the annual summit. This year, the stated goal of the Brazilian Presidency was to “continue to seek reforms in the global governance system, always in favor of greater participation of emerging and developing countries and greater legitimacy and efficiency of existing international organizations.” The agenda focused on six areas:
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- Cooperation in global health
- Trade, investment, and finance
- Climate change
- Governance of artificial intelligence
- Multilateral peace and security architecture
- Institutional development of BRICS
Military cooperation and artificial intelligence are now getting more attention.
The BRICS alliance has developed alternatives to SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) to reduce transaction costs and reduce reliance on the US dollar for international trade. SWIFT is a cooperative headquartered in Belgium that was established by member banks in 1973 for messaging between banks about international monetary transactions. Most SWIFT transactions are denominated in US dollars.
BRICS Pay is an initiative for a decentralized payment system that would allow all member countries to trade using their national currencies and digital assets. It utilizes blockchain technology to provide transparency, security, and faster settlement. It enables transactions in local currencies rather than defaulting to the US dollar and connects with different national payment platforms such as China’s UnionPay or AliPay, Russia’s Mir, Brazil’s Pix, and India’s UPI. BRICS Pay is currently operational in pilot mode but should be fully operational in BRICS member states and selected partner countries in 2026.
The introduction of BRICS Pay will reduce the role of the US dollar for international trade settlement. Central banks and foreign investors will soon find themselves holding too many dollar-denominated assets.
These developments have not gone unnoticed by the Trump Administration. Earlier this year, President Trump announced that 10% tariffs will be imposed on all countries that fail to reach a bilateral agreement with the US by August 1. While the BRICS Summit was taking place in Rio de Janeiro, President Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on countries that align themselves with the “Anti-American policies of BRICS.” President Trump also threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs against the BRICS nations if they make any move to undermine the dollar. It’s a subjective standard, but BRICS Pay will undoubtedly reduce demand for US dollars.
The BRICS nations quickly issued a joint statement in response to President Trump’s threats, saying that the tariffs are “inconsistent with WTO rules” and threaten to “reduce global trade, disrupt global supply chains, and introduce uncertainty.” While the full impact of the new tariff regime remains to be seen, the United States has become an unreliable and unpredictable trading partner for many other countries.
Donald Trump and Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chair of Russia’s Security Council and former President (2008-2012), have exchanged barbs on social media. On July 28, Trump informed Russia that they had 10-12 days to cease the war against Ukraine. A portion of Medvedev’s response said, with “Each new ultimatum is a threat and step towards war – not with Ukraine, but with his own country.” He ended his post with a direct message for Trump: “Don’t go down the Sleepy Joe road!” Escalating the situation further, Trump ordered two US nuclear submarines to positions closer to Russia.
On July 17, General Chris Donahue, Commander of US Army Europe and Africa, also made a direct threat against Russia by stating that NATO forces could rapidly take control of Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad is a highly militarized Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea between Poland and Lithuania. It covers only 5,830 square miles, but it is the home of the Russian Baltic Sea Fleet which has missile systems and nuclear weapons. Leonid Slutsky, head of Russia’s foreign affairs committee, warned that any attack on Kaliningrad would trigger “retaliatory measures, including the use of nuclear weapons.”
While it is estimated that 1.2 million or more Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives, the Russians are well aware that the US and its NATO Allies are providing the weapons, satellite intelligence, and personnel with the technical capability to target many of the missiles used by Ukraine. Countries in the Middle East also have no illusions when they see planes provided by the US dropping American bombs using Israeli pilots. The US may soon be more involved in wars if Russia and Iran no longer choose to ignore the US role in military actions against them.
Alex Krainer is a former hedge fund manager, commodities trader and author based in Monaco. He is the co-founder of TrendCompass.net. His academic background is in business, but he is well-versed in geopolitical developments. He was born in the former Yugoslavia and served in the Croatian military. He had this to say in a recent interview:
We are witnessing the clash of two systems, generally, which makes the conflict in Ukraine the same conflict that we are witnessing in the Middle East, the same conflict that might happen with China in the future. The logic of this conflict is such that … you have to be on one side or the other. The two sides, the two systems of governance are the Western oligarchic, neo-colonialist, imperialistic system of governance versus pretty much the rest of the world. And now it so happens that there are powers in the world that are willing and able to resist the dictates of the empire. These powers, being primarily Russia and China, and also Iran.
The question is then, what side did the Trump administration take in this conflict? My conclusion, based upon the past six months of activities is that Trump has taken the side against the empire. So, very often Trump makes these statements which are, I think, largely psyops.
You know, he makes these statements for certain audiences. And he’s in the UK now (July 28). And the UK is in the most desperately war-mongering side in this conflict with Ukraine. The empire that we have in the west today is still headquartered in the City of London. That’s still its strategic, spiritual… it’s still the main headquarters. The United States has been mainly the financial and military muscle for the empire. And I think that Trump has been trying to extricate the United States from this imperial role but this is a very complicated task because the groups and interests that have benefitted the most from the United States being the empire’s enforcement arm are the most powerful groups in the United States, being the banking cartel, the military-industrial complex and certain other groups. So, he is in the UK now, he is meeting with Starmer. I think that he has to give them the impression that he is still game for being the enforcement arm for the empire. But I think, in reality, he has no intention of doing this.
So, is Trump crazy like a fox? Time will tell.
If you have any questions or comments, please contact me.
Robert G. Kahl
CFA, CPA, MBA
