The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released a preliminary estimate for real GPD during the first calendar quarter of -0.3% (annualized). The decline in GDP was primarily due to an increase in imports as companies accelerated orders in advance of tariffs. READ MORE
Tariffs Incoming
The Trump Administration plans to increase tariffs on imported goods are going into effect. Tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico and 20% on China went into effect on March 4. The increased tariffs for Mexico were then delayed until April 2. READ MORE
Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow, DOGE, and Secretary of Treasury Bessent
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains a short-term economic model that they call GDPNow. The Atlanta Fed describes it as a “running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter.” During the last week, the estimate…. READ MORE
Brave New World of Artificial Intelligence
There has been much in the media during the last two weeks about artificial intelligence (AI). The capital expenditure plans are enormous READ MORE
Expected Returns for Asset Classes
Research Affiliates publishes monthly updates to their 10-year expected returns for various asset classes. Below are their nominal (after inflation) return expectations for equities as of November 30, 2024. READ MORE