The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released a preliminary estimate for real GPD during the first calendar quarter of -0.3% (annualized). The decline in GDP was primarily due to an increase in imports as companies accelerated orders in advance of tariffs. READ MORE
Tariffs Incoming
The Trump Administration plans to increase tariffs on imported goods are going into effect. Tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico and 20% on China went into effect on March 4. The increased tariffs for Mexico were then delayed until April 2. READ MORE
Expected Returns for Asset Classes
Research Affiliates publishes monthly updates to their 10-year expected returns for various asset classes. Below are their nominal (after inflation) return expectations for equities as of November 30, 2024. READ MORE
An Update on BRICS+
The BRICS alliance originally consisted of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. On January 1, 2024, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates joined the economic alliance as full members. The ten countries combined account for 37% of world GDP and 46% of world population. READ MORE
Debt, Inflation, Employment, and the Equity Risk Premium
Total US credit market debt (government, corporate, and consumer) has been growing at a faster rate than gross domestic product for several decades now. READ MORE