The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now forecasting model shows that the latest estimate of GDP growth for the third calendar quarter is 3.9% as of December 1. While the US economy appears strong now, some economic commentators believe that the US economy has some signs of weakness that are likely to inhibit economic growth. READ MORE
The Fed’s Dilemma
Inflation expectations have subsided during the last two years. In July 2024, the US consumer price index was 2.9% compared to the prior year. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations READ MORE
Reading the Fed’s Tea Leaves
Financial markets price securities based upon future expectations. Based on the shape of the yield curve, financial markets reflect anticipation of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates aggressively in response to a recession. Given the recent market rally and high equity valuation levels… READ MORE