The Fed’s Dilemma

Inflation expectations have subsided during the last two years.  In July 2024, the US consumer price index was 2.9% compared to the prior year.  According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations READ MORE

Reading the Fed’s Tea Leaves

Financial markets price securities based upon future expectations.  Based on the shape of the yield curve, financial markets reflect anticipation of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates aggressively in response to a recession.  Given the recent market rally and high equity valuation levels… READ MORE

The Fed’s Boomerang

After many years of ultra-low interest rates, the Federal Reserve decided to raise interest rates and close the gap between the inflation rate.  The consequences are now reverberating through the financial system.  READ MORE