Kevin Warsh became Chair of the Federal Reserve System on May 22, succeeding Jerome Powell. There are 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) which determines monetary policy. READ MORE
Economic Roundup
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their third estimate for the first quarter of 2025 real GDP which declined at an annual rate of 0.5%. Private fixed investment was strong but was outweighed by the negative impact of imports in anticipation of higher domestic tariffs. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased by 3.4%. READ MORE
The State of US Households
US household consumption represents 70.3% of GDP, so economists evaluate the financial health of US consumers when they make their forecasts. READ MORE
Reading the Fed’s Tea Leaves
Financial markets price securities based upon future expectations. Based on the shape of the yield curve, financial markets reflect anticipation of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates aggressively in response to a recession. Given the recent market rally and high equity valuation levels… READ MORE
Consumer Prices, Debt, and Spending
The consumer price index (CPI) calculation includes a weighted distribution amongst eight major expense categories. READ MORE