Financial markets price securities based upon future expectations. Based on the shape of the yield curve, financial markets reflect anticipation of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates aggressively in response to a recession. Given the recent market rally and high equity valuation levels… READ MORE
The Outer Limits of Fiscal and Monetary Policy
During the next recession, the federal government will be more limited in their ability to respond with additional spending financed by debt issuance. READ MORE
Recession Incoming?
Economists are not particularly good at predicting recessions. In June 2022, Fortune magazine reported that more than two-thirds of economists expected a recession in 2023. READ MORE
Debt Ceiling Negotiations
Treasury Secretary Jane Yellen notified Congress today that the US Government is projected to reach its debt limit as early as June 1 if there is not a change in the current limit. In her letter to Congress, she wrote READ MORE